In Colombia there has always been debate about the export model due to the unexceptional figures and a strong indicator: the relation between exportations and the population is very low with $620 annual dollars per Colombian, against $1,250 from Peru and Ecuador, $3,500 from Mexico and Chile, and $10,000 from Korea. In the US it is almost $5,000 dollars per head.
The proportion is low too in its equivalent to gross domestic product: 16%, against 24% from Peru; 28% in Chile; 34% in Costa Rica; 39% in Mexico; 43% in Portugal, and 47% in Germany.
The debate keeps heating up. Some weeks ago, Rudolf Hommes, former Finance Minister of Colombia (1990-94), from Cesar Gaviria’s administration, brought the topic back to life with a touch of the sarcasm he has always been characterized with. He stated: “Without exportations we’re doomed. If we want for the economy to grow significantly in 2021, the government and the private sector must make a huge effort towards export generation. We are not going well…”. At the end of the year 2020, export sales went down to 21%. José Antonio Ocampo, another former Finance Minister and former chief of Planning, warned about the risks of deindustrialization, to which he suggested an export diversification policy. He also pointed out that the export development from the economic opening was clearly not as expected. Who’s right? Is it Hommes? Is it Ocampo? Are they both right? Or are they both wrong and exaggerating the matter? In 2010, the exportation of goods amounted to $39,800 millions of dollars, from which $14,350 millions (36%) were different than those from fuels; in 2014, they moved to $54,800 millions, with $18,300 millions (33%) not belonging to the mining industry. Later, in 2018 it got to $41,900 millions, with $16,200 millions (45%) in other areas than mining. In 2019 it went down to $39,500 millions, with $17,400 (44%) belonging to non-mining export. Later in 2020, the pandemic took a toll in the figure, which went down to $31,050 millions with $17,600 in non-traditional exportations which showed an increase of just 1%. Nevertheless, excluding gold and precious stones, the decline is about 6%. The falloff is general and the relation between traditional and new exportations keeps itself between 56 and 44%, respectively. Even though the total numbers match with Hommes’ statements, we must consider that the dramatic back fall of oil and carbon prices, plus the low figures of exportation in 2020, explain most of it. Ocampo notes that the oil bonanza currencies from 2010 to 2014 were not planted to create a productive ground, however is it the fault of natural resources? Due to the fact that in 2012 the profit was $42,000 millions of dollars from oil, nickel and carbon exportations, the industry importations increased to $40,000 millions of dollars, but not exactly in technology and capital goods; instead most part was in operating equipment and durable consumer goods, bountied by the revaluation of the peso in that five-year period.
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